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Plain-language explainers on federal economic and legislative policy
Glossary term

Dot plot

A chart in the Fed's quarterly projections showing where each FOMC participant expects rates to be at future dates.

Each dot is one participant’s view of the appropriate policy rate at the end of a given year, under their own forecast. The dots are anonymous, and they are not attributed to named officials.

Three things the dot plot is not: it is not a vote, it is not a commitment, and it is not a forecast by the committee as a body. Participants who do not vote at a given meeting still place dots. A median that shifts between releases tells you the distribution of views moved — not that policy has changed.

Where you will see it

It is released four times a year with the Summary of Economic Projections, and is one of the most over-read documents in economic coverage.

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Published · Last updated · Edited by Clem Ziroli III