Week in review: September 18, 2026
4 releases this week ending September 18, 2026: SEP median 2026 federal funds rate is 4.1 percent, from 3.8 percent; H.4.1; Treasury par curve lists the 10-year at 4.94 percent on September 17; and 1 more. 22 figures below, each with the source it came from and whether it was found there.
SEP median 2026 federal funds rate is 4.1 percent, from 3.8 percent
The Summary of Economic Projections released with the September 15-16, 2026 FOMC meeting shows a median federal funds rate of 4.1 percent in 2026, compared with 3.8 percent in the June projections. The 2026 median for PCE inflation is 3.7 percent (3.6 percent in June) and for core PCE inflation 3.4 percent (3.3 percent in June). The 2026 unemployment median is 4.1 percent, from 4.3 percent in June. Real GDP growth medians are 2.3 percent in 2026 and 2.4 percent in 2027. The longer-run federal funds rate median is 3.2 percent, from 3.1 percent in June.
- Median federal funds rate projection, 2026
- 4.1%
- Median federal funds rate projection, 2027
- 4.1%
- Median federal funds rate projection, longer run
- 3.2%
- Median PCE inflation projection, 2026
- 3.7%
- Median core PCE inflation projection, 2026
- 3.4%
- Median unemployment rate projection, 2026
- 4.1%
- Median real GDP growth projection, 2026
- 2.3%
Source: September 16, 2026: FOMC Projections materials, accessible version — Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Also: Federal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee release economic projections from the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, June 17, 2026: FOMC Projections materials, accessible version.
all 7 figures found at the source
- found Median federal funds rate projection, 2026 = 4.1% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Median federal funds rate projection, 2027 = 4.1% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Median federal funds rate projection, longer run = 3.2% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Median PCE inflation projection, 2026 = 3.7% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Median core PCE inflation projection, 2026 = 3.4% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Median unemployment rate projection, 2026 = 4.1% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Median real GDP growth projection, 2026 = 2.3% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
H.4.1: reserve balances averaged $3.014 trillion in the week ended September 16
The Federal Reserve Board H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances dated September 17 shows reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks averaging $3,013,794 million in the week ended September 16, up $22,484 million from $2,991,310 million in the week ended September 9. The Wednesday level was $2,921,536 million. U.S. Treasury securities held outright were $4,554,450 million on Wednesday, September 16, up $2,113 million from September 9. The Treasury General Account was $991,708 million that Wednesday. Securities held outright were $6,470,320 million.
- Reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks, week average, millions of dollars
- $3,013,794
- Reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks, Wednesday level, millions of dollars
- $2,921,536
- U.S. Treasury securities held outright, Wednesday level, millions of dollars
- $4,554,450
- Treasury General Account, Wednesday level, millions of dollars
- $991,708
- Treasury General Account, week average, millions of dollars
- $877,028
- Securities held outright, Wednesday level, millions of dollars
- $6,470,320
- Reverse repurchase agreements, Wednesday level, millions of dollars
- $323,803
Source: H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances, September 17, 2026 — Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Also: Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks: Week Average (WRESBAL).
all 7 figures found at the source
- found Reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks, week average, millions of dollars = $3,013,794 — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks, Wednesday level, millions of dollars = $2,921,536 — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found U.S. Treasury securities held outright, Wednesday level, millions of dollars = $4,554,450 — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Treasury General Account, Wednesday level, millions of dollars = $991,708 — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Treasury General Account, week average, millions of dollars = $877,028 — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Securities held outright, Wednesday level, millions of dollars = $6,470,320 — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Reverse repurchase agreements, Wednesday level, millions of dollars = $323,803 — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Treasury par curve lists the 10-year at 4.94 percent on September 17
The Treasury Department's Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates table for September 2026 now lists a September 17 column. The 2-year par yield was 4.67 percent, the 5-year was 4.78 percent, the 10-year was 4.94 percent, and the 30-year was 5.29 percent, versus 4.74, 4.86, 5.01, and 5.35 percent on September 16. The 2s10s par spread held at 27 basis points. The move in the 10-year is 7 basis points, under the 10 basis-point bar. Board H.15 for September 17 prints at 4:15 p.m. ET.
- 2-year Treasury par yield
- 4.67%
- 5-year Treasury par yield
- 4.78%
- 10-year Treasury par yield
- 4.94%
- 30-year Treasury par yield
- 5.29%
- 2s10s Treasury par spread
- +27 bp
Source: Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, September 2026 — U.S. Department of the Treasury.
all 5 figures found at the source
- found 2-year Treasury par yield = 4.67% — at U.S. Department of the Treasury
- found 5-year Treasury par yield = 4.78% — at U.S. Department of the Treasury
- found 10-year Treasury par yield = 4.94% — at U.S. Department of the Treasury
- found 30-year Treasury par yield = 5.29% — at U.S. Department of the Treasury
- found 2s10s Treasury par spread = +27 bp — at U.S. Department of the Treasury
Total public debt outstanding was $40.093 trillion on September 17
Treasury Fiscal Data's Debt to the Penny listed total public debt outstanding at 40,093,343,468,150.50 dollars as of September 17, compared with 40,094,080,427,790.97 dollars on September 16. Debt held by the public was 32,392,786,557,372.46 dollars, compared with 32,406,353,922,774.30 dollars on September 16. Intragovernmental holdings were 7,700,556,910,778.04 dollars, compared with 7,687,726,505,016.67 dollars on September 16. The one-day decline of 736,959,640.47 dollars mixed a 13.57 billion dollar fall in debt held by the public with a 12.83 billion dollar rise in intragovernmental holdings.
- Total public debt outstanding
- $40,093,343,468,150.5
- Debt held by the public
- $32,392,786,557,372.46
- Intragovernmental holdings
- $7,700,556,910,778.04
Source: Debt to the Penny — U.S. Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service. Also: Debt to the Penny API, latest records.
all 3 figures found at the source
- found Total public debt outstanding = $40,093,343,468,150.5 — at U.S. Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service
- found Debt held by the public = $32,392,786,557,372.46 — at U.S. Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service
- found Intragovernmental holdings = $7,700,556,910,778.04 — at U.S. Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service
7 further items were researched for this week and held back: their figures could not be found at the named source by the automated pass, so they are not published here.
Items report what the named sources published in the window; they are not this site's own findings, and a source's framing is not a verdict on who owns the money supply. Figures are as those sources printed them. The methodology says how this page is made and what is checked.