Week in review: September 18, 2026
6 releases this week ending September 18, 2026: SEP median 2026 federal funds rate is 4.1 percent, from 3.8 percent; August retail and food services sales were $773.9 billion, up 1.2 percent; Census; and 3 more. 41 figures below, each with the source it came from and whether it was found there.
SEP median 2026 federal funds rate is 4.1 percent, from 3.8 percent
The Summary of Economic Projections released with the September 15-16, 2026 FOMC meeting shows a median federal funds rate of 4.1 percent in 2026, compared with 3.8 percent in the June projections. The 2026 median for PCE inflation is 3.7 percent (3.6 percent in June) and for core PCE inflation 3.4 percent (3.3 percent in June). The 2026 unemployment median is 4.1 percent, from 4.3 percent in June. Real GDP growth medians are 2.3 percent in 2026 and 2.4 percent in 2027. The longer-run federal funds rate median is 3.2 percent, from 3.1 percent in June.
- Median federal funds rate projection, 2026
- 4.1%
- Median federal funds rate projection, 2027
- 4.1%
- Median federal funds rate projection, longer run
- 3.2%
- Median PCE inflation projection, 2026
- 3.7%
- Median core PCE inflation projection, 2026
- 3.4%
- Median unemployment rate projection, 2026
- 4.1%
- Median real GDP growth projection, 2026
- 2.3%
Source: September 16, 2026: FOMC Projections materials, accessible version — Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Also: Federal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee release economic projections from the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, June 17, 2026: FOMC Projections materials, accessible version.
all 7 figures found at the source
- found Median federal funds rate projection, 2026 = 4.1% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Median federal funds rate projection, 2027 = 4.1% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Median federal funds rate projection, longer run = 3.2% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Median PCE inflation projection, 2026 = 3.7% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Median core PCE inflation projection, 2026 = 3.4% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Median unemployment rate projection, 2026 = 4.1% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Median real GDP growth projection, 2026 = 2.3% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
August retail and food services sales were $773.9 billion, up 1.2 percent
The Census Bureau's Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, release CB26-153 posted today, said seasonally adjusted August 2026 sales were $773.9 billion, up 1.2 percent from the previous month and up 6.0 percent from August 2025. Sales for June through August 2026 were up 6.0 percent from the same period a year earlier. The June-to-July percent change was revised from down 0.6 percent to down 0.5 percent. Figures are adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes.
- Retail and food services sales
- $773.9B
- Retail and food services sales, month-over-month
- 1.2%
- Retail and food services sales, year-over-year
- 6%
- June to July retail and food services sales change, revised
- -0.5%
Source: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, August 2026 (CB26-153) — U.S. Census Bureau.
all 4 figures found at the source
- found Retail and food services sales = $773.9B — at U.S. Census Bureau
- found Retail and food services sales, month-over-month = 1.2% — at U.S. Census Bureau
- found Retail and food services sales, year-over-year = 6% — at U.S. Census Bureau
- found June to July retail and food services sales change, revised = -0.5% — at U.S. Census Bureau
Census: August housing starts 1,275,000, down 2.6 percent from July
Census published Monthly New Residential Construction for August 2026 today. Privately owned housing starts were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,275,000, 2.6 percent below the revised July rate of 1,309,000 and 1.2 percent below the August 2025 rate of 1,291,000. Single-family starts were 918,000, 7.6 percent above the revised July figure of 853,000. Starts of units in buildings with five or more units were 344,000. Building permits were 1,394,000, 2.7 percent below the revised July rate of 1,433,000 and 3.5 percent above August 2025. Completions were 1,128,000, 11.9 percent below the revised July rate of 1,280,000.
- Housing starts, seasonally adjusted annual rate
- 1,275,000
- Housing starts, month-over-month change
- -2.6%
- Housing starts, year-over-year change
- -1.2%
- Single-family housing starts, seasonally adjusted annual rate
- 918,000
- Single-family housing starts, month-over-month change
- 7.6%
- Multifamily housing starts, five or more units, seasonally adjusted annual rate
- 344,000
- Building permits, seasonally adjusted annual rate
- 1,394,000
- Building permits, month-over-month change
- -2.7%
- Housing completions, seasonally adjusted annual rate
- 1,128,000
- Housing completions, month-over-month change
- -11.9%
Source: Monthly New Residential Construction, August 2026 — U.S. Census Bureau. Also: New Residential Construction press release PDF, August 2026.
all 10 figures found at the source
- found Housing starts, seasonally adjusted annual rate = 1,275,000 — at U.S. Census Bureau
- found Housing starts, month-over-month change = -2.6% — at U.S. Census Bureau
- found Housing starts, year-over-year change = -1.2% — at U.S. Census Bureau
- found Single-family housing starts, seasonally adjusted annual rate = 918,000 — at U.S. Census Bureau
- found Single-family housing starts, month-over-month change = 7.6% — at U.S. Census Bureau
- found Multifamily housing starts, five or more units, seasonally adjusted annual rate = 344,000 — at U.S. Census Bureau
- found Building permits, seasonally adjusted annual rate = 1,394,000 — at U.S. Census Bureau
- found Building permits, month-over-month change = -2.7% — at U.S. Census Bureau
- found Housing completions, seasonally adjusted annual rate = 1,128,000 — at U.S. Census Bureau
- found Housing completions, month-over-month change = -11.9% — at U.S. Census Bureau
Industrial production was unchanged in August after a 0.2 percent July rise
The Federal Reserve Board's G.17 release, published at 9:15 a.m. ET September 18, said industrial production was unchanged in August after increasing 0.2 percent in July. Manufacturing output decreased 0.3 percent. Mining ticked up 0.1 percent and utilities increased 1.8 percent. At 103.1 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in August was 1.4 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization was unchanged at 76.3 percent, 3.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2025) average. The total index for July was unrevised at 103.0. June's monthly change was revised to 0.2 percent from 0.3 percent.
- Industrial production, monthly change
- 0%
- Industrial production index
- 103.1
- Industrial production, year-over-year change
- 1.4%
- Manufacturing production, monthly change
- -0.3%
- Manufacturing production index
- 98.2
- Mining production, monthly change
- 0.1%
- Utilities production, monthly change
- 1.8%
- Capacity utilization, total industry
- 76.3%
Source: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization - G.17, August 2026 — Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
all 8 figures found at the source
- found Industrial production, monthly change = 0% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Industrial production index = 103.1 — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Industrial production, year-over-year change = 1.4% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Manufacturing production, monthly change = -0.3% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Manufacturing production index = 98.2 — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Mining production, monthly change = 0.1% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Utilities production, monthly change = 1.8% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Capacity utilization, total industry = 76.3% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
H.4.1: reserve balances averaged $3.014 trillion in the week ended September 16
The Federal Reserve Board H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances dated September 17 shows reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks averaging $3,013,794 million in the week ended September 16, up $22,484 million from $2,991,310 million in the week ended September 9. The Wednesday level was $2,921,536 million. U.S. Treasury securities held outright were $4,554,450 million on Wednesday, September 16, up $2,113 million from September 9. The Treasury General Account was $991,708 million that Wednesday. Securities held outright were $6,470,320 million.
- Reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks, week average, millions of dollars
- $3,013,794
- Reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks, Wednesday level, millions of dollars
- $2,921,536
- U.S. Treasury securities held outright, Wednesday level, millions of dollars
- $4,554,450
- Treasury General Account, Wednesday level, millions of dollars
- $991,708
- Treasury General Account, week average, millions of dollars
- $877,028
- Securities held outright, Wednesday level, millions of dollars
- $6,470,320
- Reverse repurchase agreements, Wednesday level, millions of dollars
- $323,803
Source: H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances, September 17, 2026 — Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Also: Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks: Week Average (WRESBAL).
all 7 figures found at the source
- found Reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks, week average, millions of dollars = $3,013,794 — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks, Wednesday level, millions of dollars = $2,921,536 — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found U.S. Treasury securities held outright, Wednesday level, millions of dollars = $4,554,450 — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Treasury General Account, Wednesday level, millions of dollars = $991,708 — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Treasury General Account, week average, millions of dollars = $877,028 — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Securities held outright, Wednesday level, millions of dollars = $6,470,320 — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Reverse repurchase agreements, Wednesday level, millions of dollars = $323,803 — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Treasury par curve lists the 10-year at 4.94 percent on September 17
The Treasury Department's Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates table for September 2026 now lists a September 17 column. The 2-year par yield was 4.67 percent, the 5-year was 4.78 percent, the 10-year was 4.94 percent, and the 30-year was 5.29 percent, versus 4.74, 4.86, 5.01, and 5.35 percent on September 16. The 2s10s par spread held at 27 basis points. The move in the 10-year is 7 basis points, under the 10 basis-point bar. Board H.15 for September 17 prints at 4:15 p.m. ET.
- 2-year Treasury par yield
- 4.67%
- 5-year Treasury par yield
- 4.78%
- 10-year Treasury par yield
- 4.94%
- 30-year Treasury par yield
- 5.29%
- 2s10s Treasury par spread
- +27 bp
Source: Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, September 2026 — U.S. Department of the Treasury.
all 5 figures found at the source
- found 2-year Treasury par yield = 4.67% — at U.S. Department of the Treasury
- found 5-year Treasury par yield = 4.78% — at U.S. Department of the Treasury
- found 10-year Treasury par yield = 4.94% — at U.S. Department of the Treasury
- found 30-year Treasury par yield = 5.29% — at U.S. Department of the Treasury
- found 2s10s Treasury par spread = +27 bp — at U.S. Department of the Treasury
5 further items were researched for this week and held back: their figures could not be found at the named source by the automated pass, so they are not published here.
Items report what the named sources published in the window; they are not this site's own findings, and a source's framing is not a verdict on who owns the money supply. Figures are as those sources printed them. The methodology says how this page is made and what is checked.