Week in review · 2026-09-21 to 2026-09-26

Week in review: September 25, 2026

5 releases this week ending September 25, 2026: Seasonally adjusted M2 rose to $23,342.8 billion in August; CFNAI was -0.04 in August; Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 is 5.0 percent; August durable-goods orders were virtually unchanged at $338.6 billion; and 2 more. 25 figures below, each with the source it came from and whether it was found there.

Researched by Grok, checked against each source by an automated pass, edited by FEDPOLICY.ORG. Published Sep 25, 2026.

Seasonally adjusted M2 rose to $23,342.8 billion in August

The Federal Reserve Board's Money Stock Measures release published September 22 put seasonally adjusted M2 at 23,342.8 billion dollars in August after a revised 23,217.9 billion in July. Seasonally adjusted M1 was 19,991.1 billion dollars after 19,886.5 billion. The monetary base was 5,411.6 billion dollars after 5,523.9 billion. Currency in circulation was 2,475.6 billion dollars and reserve balances were 2,936.0 billion. M2 is the Board's published stock; a one-month rise does not by itself settle whether money is growing faster than output, but the stock is the quantity the Board printed.

M2, seasonally adjusted: $23,342.8B 2026-08 · prior $23,217.9B (2026-07)
M1, seasonally adjusted: $19,991.1B 2026-08 · prior $19,886.5B (2026-07)
Monetary base: $5,411.6B 2026-08 · prior $5,523.9B (2026-07)
Currency in circulation: $2,475.6B 2026-08 · prior $2,472.3B (2026-07)
Reserve balances: $2,936B 2026-08 · prior $3,051.5B (2026-07)

Source: Money Stock Measures (H.6), August 2026 — Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Also: M2 (M2SL).

all 5 figures found at the source

found M2, seasonally adjusted = $23,342.8B — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
found M1, seasonally adjusted = $19,991.1B — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
found Monetary base = $5,411.6B — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
found Currency in circulation = $2,475.6B — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
found Reserve balances = $2,936B — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

CFNAI was -0.04 in August; Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 is 5.0 percent

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was -0.04 in August after 0.08 in July. The three-month moving average was 0.01 after -0.01, and the diffusion index was 0.02 after 0.04. A zero monthly reading has been associated with trend growth. The Richmond Fed Fifth District composite manufacturing index fell to -2 in September from 4 in August, with shipments at -5 and new orders at -6. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2026 is 5.0 percent on September 25, down from 5.1 percent on September 17. GDPNow is a model nowcast, not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed or the FOMC.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index: -0.0 2026-08 · prior 0.1 (2026-07)
CFNAI three-month moving average: 0.0 2026-08 · prior -0.0 (2026-07)
Fifth District composite manufacturing index: -2.0 2026-09 · prior 4.0 (2026-08)
GDPNow real GDP growth nowcast, Q3 2026: 5% 2026-Q3 · prior 5.1% (2026-09-17)

Source: Chicago Fed National Activity Index, current data — Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Also: Manufacturing Survey, September 22, 2026, GDPNow commentaries, September 25, 2026.

all 4 figures found at the source

found Chicago Fed National Activity Index = -0.0 — via FRED CFNAI
found CFNAI three-month moving average = 0.0 — via FRED CFNAIMA3
found Fifth District composite manufacturing index = -2.0 — at Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
found GDPNow real GDP growth nowcast, Q3 2026 = 5% — at Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

August durable-goods orders were virtually unchanged at $338.6 billion

The Census Bureau said new orders for manufactured durable goods in August decreased 0.1 billion dollars, or were virtually unchanged, to 338.6 billion dollars after a 0.9 percent July increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.3 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.1 percent. Transportation equipment drove the decrease, falling 0.7 billion dollars or 0.6 percent to 114.1 billion dollars.

New orders for manufactured durable goods, level: $338.6B 2026-08
New orders for manufactured durable goods, monthly dollar change: $-0.1B 2026-08
New orders excluding transportation, monthly change: 0.3% 2026-08
New orders excluding defense, monthly change: 0.1% 2026-08
Transportation equipment new orders, level: $114.1B 2026-08
Transportation equipment new orders, monthly change: -0.6% 2026-08
New orders, July monthly change: 0.9% 2026-07

Source: Monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments Inventories and Orders, August 2026 — U.S. Census Bureau.

pinned: confirmed previously, no dated source — figures confirmed on 2026-10-21; 5 of 7 not re-printed by the source now (New orders for manufactured durable goods, level; New orders for manufactured durable goods, monthly dollar change; Transportation equipment new orders, level; Transportation equipment new orders, monthly change; New orders, July monthly change)

not found New orders for manufactured durable goods, level = $338.6B — not printed at U.S. Census Bureau
not found New orders for manufactured durable goods, monthly dollar change = $-0.1B — not printed at U.S. Census Bureau
found New orders excluding transportation, monthly change = 0.3% — at U.S. Census Bureau
found New orders excluding defense, monthly change = 0.1% — at U.S. Census Bureau
not found Transportation equipment new orders, level = $114.1B — not printed at U.S. Census Bureau
not found Transportation equipment new orders, monthly change = -0.6% — not printed at U.S. Census Bureau
not found New orders, July monthly change = 0.9% — not printed at U.S. Census Bureau

Treasury par curve lists the 10-year at 5.18 percent on September 24

Treasury's Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates list a September 24 10-year par yield of 5.18 percent after 5.11 percent on September 23 and 4.96 percent on September 22. The 2-year was 4.87 percent after 4.85 percent, the 5-year 5.03 percent after 4.99 percent, and the 30-year 5.47 percent after 5.40 percent. The 2s10s par spread was 31 basis points after 26. The Board's selected interest rates release through September 24 lists the effective federal funds rate at 3.88 percent, unchanged from September 23, with bank prime at 7.00 percent and primary credit at 4.00 percent. The curve moved after last week's 25 basis-point funds-rate increase; these are the published yields, not a forecast of the next meeting.

2-year Treasury par yield: 4.87% 2026-09-24 · prior 4.85% (2026-09-23)
5-year Treasury par yield: 5.03% 2026-09-24 · prior 4.99% (2026-09-23)
10-year Treasury par yield: 5.18% 2026-09-24 · prior 5.11% (2026-09-23)
30-year Treasury par yield: 5.47% 2026-09-24 · prior 5.4% (2026-09-23)
2s10s Treasury par spread: +31 bp 2026-09-24 · prior +26 bp (2026-09-23)
Effective federal funds rate: 3.88% 2026-09-24 · prior 3.88% (2026-09-23)

10-year Treasury par yield. Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve Rates, September 22–24, 2026. Share card.

Source: Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, September 2026 — U.S. Department of the Treasury. Also: Selected Interest Rates (Daily) — September 25, 2026.

all 6 figures found at the source

found 2-year Treasury par yield = 4.87% — at U.S. Department of the Treasury
found 5-year Treasury par yield = 5.03% — at U.S. Department of the Treasury
found 10-year Treasury par yield = 5.18% — at U.S. Department of the Treasury
found 30-year Treasury par yield = 5.47% — at U.S. Department of the Treasury
found 2s10s Treasury par spread = +31 bp — at U.S. Department of the Treasury
found Effective federal funds rate = 3.88% — at U.S. Department of the Treasury

Total public debt outstanding was $40.074 trillion on September 23

Treasury Fiscal Data's Debt to the Penny listed total public debt outstanding at 40,073,558,531,201.68 dollars as of September 23, compared with 40,097,834,028,442.07 dollars on September 22. Debt held by the public was 32,376,938,482,751.49 dollars. Intragovernmental holdings were 7,696,620,048,450.19 dollars. Monday's print had listed 40,101,500,516,712.09 dollars as of September 18; the Friday cut uses the latest record date in the week's daily packages.

Total public debt outstanding: $40,073,558,531,201.68 2026-09-23 · prior $40,097,834,028,442.07 (2026-09-22)
Debt held by the public: $32,376,938,482,751.49 2026-09-23 · prior $32,375,685,818,022.2 (2026-09-22)
Intragovernmental holdings: $7,696,620,048,450.19 2026-09-23 · prior $7,722,148,210,419.87 (2026-09-22)

Source: Debt to the Penny — U.S. Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service. Also: Debt to the Penny API, latest records.

all 3 figures found at the source

found Total public debt outstanding = $40,073,558,531,201.68 — at U.S. Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service
found Debt held by the public = $32,376,938,482,751.49 — at U.S. Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service
found Intragovernmental holdings = $7,696,620,048,450.19 — at U.S. Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service

6 further items were researched for this week and held back: their figures could not be found at the named source by the automated pass, so they are not published here.

Items report what the named sources published in the window; they are not this site's own findings, and a source's framing is not a verdict on who owns the money supply. Figures are as those sources printed them. The methodology says how this page is made and what is checked.