Week in review: October 2, 2026
5 releases this week ending October 2, 2026: PCE prices rose 0.3 percent in August and 3.4 percent on the year; Cook, Barr, and Jefferson on a 25 basis-point hike and inflation still above 2 percent; Reserve balances averaged $2.948 trillion in the week ended September 30; and 2 more. 38 figures below, each with the source it came from and whether it was found there.
PCE prices rose 0.3 percent in August and 3.4 percent on the year
The Bureau of Economic Analysis said the PCE price index rose 0.3 percent in August after 0.1 percent in July, and 3.4 percent from a year earlier. Excluding food and energy, the index rose 0.2 percent on the month and 3.0 percent on the year. Personal income rose 66.6 billion dollars, or 0.2 percent. Disposable personal income rose 68.6 billion dollars, or 0.3 percent. Personal consumption expenditures rose 190.8 billion dollars, or 0.9 percent. The personal saving rate was 4.1 percent. A 3.4 percent yearly PCE rate is still well above the 2 percent target Cook and Jefferson said inflation has exceeded for more than five years. A one-month print does not settle the medium run: sustained inflation is money growing faster than output.
- PCE price index, monthly change
- 0.3%
- PCE price index, year over year
- 3.4%
- PCE price index excluding food and energy, monthly change
- 0.2%
- PCE price index excluding food and energy, year over year
- 3%
- Personal income, monthly dollar change
- $66.6B
- Personal income, monthly change
- 0.2%
- Disposable personal income, monthly dollar change
- $68.6B
- Disposable personal income, monthly change
- 0.3%
- Personal consumption expenditures, monthly dollar change
- $190.8B
- Personal consumption expenditures, monthly change
- 0.9%
- Personal saving rate
- 4.1%
Source: Personal Income and Outlays, August 2026 — U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
all 11 figures found at the source
- found PCE price index, monthly change = 0.3% — at U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
- found PCE price index, year over year = 3.4% — at U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
- found PCE price index excluding food and energy, monthly change = 0.2% — at U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
- found PCE price index excluding food and energy, year over year = 3% — at U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
- found Personal income, monthly dollar change = $66.6B — at U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
- found Personal income, monthly change = 0.2% — at U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
- found Disposable personal income, monthly dollar change = $68.6B — at U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
- found Disposable personal income, monthly change = 0.3% — at U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
- found Personal consumption expenditures, monthly dollar change = $190.8B — at U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
- found Personal consumption expenditures, monthly change = 0.9% — at U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
- found Personal saving rate = 4.1% — at U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Cook, Barr, and Jefferson on a 25 basis-point hike and inflation still above 2 percent
Governor Lisa Cook said on September 28 that she voted to raise rates 25 basis points, that total inflation rose an estimated 3.8 percent in the 12 months into August, and that core inflation rose an estimated 3.4 percent, against a 2 percent target. She put August unemployment at 4.1 percent. On September 30 she said inflation has exceeded that target for more than five years. Governor Michael Barr put U.S. unemployment at 4.1 percent and first-half real GDP at roughly 2 percent. He counts two months of 2 percent core PCE in the past 20. Vice Chair Jefferson said August unemployment was 4.1 percent, 12-month PCE was 3.4 percent, and the Committee raised the target range a quarter point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent. He attributed the overshoot to shocks. That is his account. A shock account does not settle a five-year overshoot: sustained inflation is money growing faster than output.
- September FOMC funds-rate increase, Cook
- +25 bp
- Total inflation, 12 months into August, Cook estimate
- 3.8%
- Core inflation, 12 months into August, Cook estimate
- 3.4%
- Unemployment rate in August, Cook
- 4.1%
- Federal Reserve inflation target, Cook
- 2%
- U.S. unemployment rate, Barr
- 4.1%
- Real GDP growth, first half, Barr
- 2%
- Months of 2 percent core PCE in past 20 months, Barr
- 2
- Months Barr counted, Barr
- 20
- Unemployment rate in August, Jefferson
- 4.1%
- PCE price index, 12-month change, Jefferson
- 3.4%
- Federal funds target range, lower bound, Jefferson
- 3.75%
- Federal funds target range, upper bound, Jefferson
- 4%
Source: An Update on AI and the Economy, remarks by Governor Lisa D. Cook — Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Also: The Dual Mandate in Rural America, remarks by Governor Lisa D. Cook, Economic Conditions and Monetary Policy, remarks by Governor Michael S. Barr, The U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy, remarks by Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson.
all 13 figures found at the source
- found September FOMC funds-rate increase, Cook = +25 bp — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Total inflation, 12 months into August, Cook estimate = 3.8% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Core inflation, 12 months into August, Cook estimate = 3.4% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Unemployment rate in August, Cook = 4.1% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Federal Reserve inflation target, Cook = 2% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found U.S. unemployment rate, Barr = 4.1% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Real GDP growth, first half, Barr = 2% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Months of 2 percent core PCE in past 20 months, Barr = 2 — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Months Barr counted, Barr = 20 — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Unemployment rate in August, Jefferson = 4.1% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found PCE price index, 12-month change, Jefferson = 3.4% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Federal funds target range, lower bound, Jefferson = 3.75% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Federal funds target range, upper bound, Jefferson = 4% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Reserve balances averaged $2.948 trillion in the week ended September 30
The Board's H.4.1 dated October 1 shows reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks averaging 2,948,090 million dollars in the week ended September 30, after 2,930,193 million in the week ended September 23. The Wednesday level was 2,881,686 million. Total assets on Wednesday, September 30, were 6,743,031 million dollars, after 6,747,704 million. U.S. Treasury securities held outright were 4,564,161 million. Securities held outright were 6,464,597 million. The Treasury General Account was 984,046 million that Wednesday, after 947,317 million. Reverse repurchase agreements were 361,883 million. The balance sheet is the stock of reserves and securities the Board printed; the week's average is not a statement that runoff has stopped.
- Reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks, week average, millions of dollars
- $2,948,090
- Reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks, Wednesday level, millions of dollars
- $2,881,686
- Total assets, Wednesday level, millions of dollars
- $6,743,031
- U.S. Treasury securities held outright, Wednesday level, millions of dollars
- $4,564,161
- Securities held outright, Wednesday level, millions of dollars
- $6,464,597
- Treasury General Account, Wednesday level, millions of dollars
- $984,046
- Reverse repurchase agreements, Wednesday level, millions of dollars
- $361,883
Source: H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances, October 1, 2026 — Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
all 7 figures found at the source
- found Reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks, week average, millions of dollars = $2,948,090 — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks, Wednesday level, millions of dollars = $2,881,686 — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Total assets, Wednesday level, millions of dollars = $6,743,031 — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found U.S. Treasury securities held outright, Wednesday level, millions of dollars = $4,564,161 — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Securities held outright, Wednesday level, millions of dollars = $6,464,597 — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Treasury General Account, Wednesday level, millions of dollars = $984,046 — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Reverse repurchase agreements, Wednesday level, millions of dollars = $361,883 — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Bank credit was $19,862.5 billion in the week ending September 23
The Board's H.8 reported seasonally adjusted bank credit of 19,862.5 billion dollars in the week ending September 23, after 19,887.7 billion in the week ending September 16. Loans and leases in bank credit were 14,097.2 billion dollars, after 14,088.5 billion. Figures are Table 2 of the weekly commercial-bank release, in billions of dollars.
- Bank credit, seasonally adjusted
- $19,862.5B
- Loans and leases in bank credit, seasonally adjusted
- $14,097.2B
Source: Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the United States, October 2, 2026 — Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Also: Bank Credit, All Commercial Banks (TOTBKCR).
all 2 figures found at the source
- found Bank credit, seasonally adjusted = $19,862.5B — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Loans and leases in bank credit, seasonally adjusted = $14,097.2B — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
SOFR was 3.87 percent on October 1; effective funds held at 3.88 percent
The New York Fed's secured overnight financing rate was 3.87 percent on October 1, after 3.90 percent on September 30. The 25th percentile was 3.84 percent and the 75th percentile 3.92 percent. Volume was 3,067 billion dollars, after 3,230 billion. The effective federal funds rate held at 3.88 percent on October 1, inside the 3.75 to 4 percent target range. SOFR is an overnight secured rate, not the policy target.
- Secured Overnight Financing Rate
- 3.87%
- SOFR 25th percentile
- 3.84%
- SOFR 75th percentile
- 3.92%
- SOFR volume
- $3,067B
- Effective federal funds rate
- 3.88%
Source: Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data, October 1, 2026 — Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Also: Effective Federal Funds Rate Data, October 1, 2026.
all 5 figures found at the source
- found Secured Overnight Financing Rate = 3.87% — at Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- found SOFR 25th percentile = 3.84% — at Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- found SOFR 75th percentile = 3.92% — at Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- found SOFR volume = $3,067B — at Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- found Effective federal funds rate = 3.88% — at Federal Reserve Bank of New York
6 further items were researched for this week and held back: their figures could not be found at the named source by the automated pass, so they are not published here.
Items report what the named sources published in the window; they are not this site's own findings, and a source's framing is not a verdict on who owns the money supply. Figures are as those sources printed them. The methodology says how this page is made and what is checked.