Week in review: October 9, 2026
12 releases this week ending October 9, 2026: FOMC minutes; Waller; White House sets up committee of inquiry into whether Fed Governor Lisa Cook can be removed for cause; and 9 more. 64 figures below, each with the source it came from and whether it was found there.
FOMC minutes: all participants backed the September hike; most saw another by year end
Minutes of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting, released October 7, show all participants supported raising the federal funds target range 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, and the statement passed 12–0. Most participants assessed that another increase would likely be appropriate by year end, and almost all saw inflation risks tilted to the upside. Staff estimated total PCE inflation at 3.8 percent in August and core PCE at 3.4 percent; unemployment was 4.1 percent. The Board set interest on reserve balances at 3.90 percent. Total PCE inflation near twice the 2 percent target is what the rate path is answering; the next meeting is October 27–28.
- Federal funds target range, lower bound
- 3.75%
- Federal funds target range, upper bound
- 4%
- Change in federal funds target range
- +25 bp
- FOMC statement vote, members in favor
- 12
- Staff estimate, total PCE inflation, 12-month
- 3.8%
- Staff estimate, core PCE inflation, 12-month
- 3.4%
- Unemployment rate
- 4.1%
- Interest on reserve balances
- 3.9%
Source: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 15-16, 2026 — Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Also: Press release: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 15-16, 2026.
all 8 figures found at the source
- found Federal funds target range, lower bound = 3.75% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Federal funds target range, upper bound = 4% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Change in federal funds target range = +25 bp — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found FOMC statement vote, members in favor = 12 — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Staff estimate, total PCE inflation, 12-month = 3.8% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Staff estimate, core PCE inflation, 12-month = 3.4% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Unemployment rate = 4.1% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Interest on reserve balances = 3.9% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Waller: 16 of 18 Fed officials expect at least one more rate hike this year
Governor Christopher J. Waller said in remarks dated October 8 at the Istanbul Economic Forum that the September 25 basis-point increase to a 3.75 to 4 percent range came after nine months of holding it steady. Of the 18 participants who submitted projections, 16 anticipated at least one more hike at the two remaining meetings this year, and 4 of those 16 expected two. He cited futures prices as of October 7 showing an 85 percent chance of at least one hike by the December meeting. The projections and the market reading are Waller's characterisation. A rate path matters to the extent it slows the growth of money and credit; the balance-sheet and bank-credit items below are where that shows up.
- September policy-rate increase
- +25 bp
- Federal funds target range, lower bound
- 3.75%
- Federal funds target range, upper bound
- 4%
- Participants expecting at least one more hike this year
- 16
- Participants who submitted projections
- 18
- Of those 16, participants expecting two additional hikes
- 4
- Futures-implied chance of at least one hike by the December meeting, as of yesterday
- 85%
Source: Speech by Governor Waller on the signaling value of the Summary of Economic Projections — Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Also: Speech by Governor Waller (PDF).
all 7 figures found at the source
- found September policy-rate increase = +25 bp — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Federal funds target range, lower bound = 3.75% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Federal funds target range, upper bound = 4% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Participants expecting at least one more hike this year = 16 — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Participants who submitted projections = 18 — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Of those 16, participants expecting two additional hikes = 4 — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Futures-implied chance of at least one hike by the December meeting, as of yesterday = 85% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
White House sets up committee of inquiry into whether Fed Governor Lisa Cook can be removed for cause
A presidential memorandum dated October 7 and published on whitehouse.gov on October 9 establishes a committee of inquiry into allegations that Governor Lisa D. Cook made false statements in connection with one or more mortgage instruments, and asks it to report whether there is cause for removal under 12 U.S.C. 242 as construed in Trump v. Cook. The 3 members are the Assistant to the President for Economic Policy, the Chairman of the EEOC and the Director of the Office of Government Ethics. An in-person White House hearing is set for November 5, lasting no longer than 4 hours, with a post-hearing written statement allowed by November 10. The allegations are the memo's. For-cause tenure is meant to keep money and credit decisions at arm's length from politics.
- Committee of inquiry members
- 3
- Maximum length of November 5 hearing, hours
- 4
Source: Establishment of a Committee of Inquiry to Investigate Allegations of False Statements by Lisa DeNell Cook — The White House. Also: Trump appoints committee to investigate statements by the Fed's Lisa Cook.
all 2 figures found at the source
- found Committee of inquiry members = 3 — at The White House
- found Maximum length of November 5 hearing, hours = 4 — at The White House
NY Fed: one-year inflation expectations rose to 3.9% in September, highest since May 2023
The New York Fed's September Survey of Consumer Expectations, released October 7, put median one-year-ahead inflation expectations at 3.9 percent, up 0.3 percentage point and the highest since May 2023. Three-year-ahead expectations rose to 3.3 percent; five-year-ahead held at 3.0 percent. Expected household spending growth rose to 5.5 percent. The mean probability that unemployment is higher in a year eased to 43.9 percent. Expectations are a channel, not a cause: households expect more inflation after years of it, and they hold that view because money has been loose, not the other way around.
- Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations
- 3.9%
- Median three-year-ahead inflation expectations
- 3.3%
- Median five-year-ahead inflation expectations
- 3%
- Median one-year-ahead household spending growth expectations
- 5.5%
- Mean unemployment expectations (probability higher in 12 months)
- 43.9%
Source: Short- and Medium-Term Inflation Expectations Increase; Labor Market Expectations Improve — Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
all 5 figures found at the source
- found Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations = 3.9% — at Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- found Median three-year-ahead inflation expectations = 3.3% — at Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- found Median five-year-ahead inflation expectations = 3% — at Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- found Median one-year-ahead household spending growth expectations = 5.5% — at Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- found Mean unemployment expectations (probability higher in 12 months) = 43.9% — at Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Michigan sentiment fell to 46.3 in early October; year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.7%
The University of Michigan's preliminary October Index of Consumer Sentiment, released October 9, was 46.3, down from 48.1 in September. The current conditions index fell to 44.7 from 50.9, while expectations rose to 47.3 from 46.3. Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.7 percent from 4.6 percent and long-run expectations to 3.5 percent from 3.4 percent; the survey says both are their highest since May. Final October results are due October 23. Read with the New York Fed survey, two separate samples now show households expecting inflation well above the 2 percent target.
- Index of Consumer Sentiment
- 46.3
- Current Economic Conditions
- 44.7
- Index of Consumer Expectations
- 47.3
- Year-ahead inflation expectations
- 4.7%
- Long-run inflation expectations
- 3.5%
Source: Preliminary Results for October 2026, Surveys of Consumers — University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.
all 5 figures found at the source
- found Index of Consumer Sentiment = 46.3 — at University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers
- found Current Economic Conditions = 44.7 — at University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers
- found Index of Consumer Expectations = 47.3 — at University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers
- found Year-ahead inflation expectations = 4.7% — at University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers
- found Long-run inflation expectations = 3.5% — at University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers
Consumer credit rose at a 1.9 percent rate in August; revolving credit fell
The Federal Reserve published its consumer credit release on October 7, 2026, covering August. Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.9 percent, after a revised 4.1 percent in July. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 4.2 percent, from a revised 2.5 percent in July. Nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 4.1 percent, from a revised 4.7 percent. Seasonally adjusted outstanding credit was $5,196.8 billion in August, up from a revised $5,188.5 billion in July. Revolving outstanding was $1,352.4 billion, down from $1,357.2 billion. The annual-rate flow of total credit was $99.4 billion, down from a revised $212.9 billion in July. The release excludes loans secured by real estate.
- Consumer credit, seasonally adjusted annual rate
- 1.9%
- Revolving credit, seasonally adjusted annual rate
- -4.2%
- Nonrevolving credit, seasonally adjusted annual rate
- 4.1%
- Consumer credit outstanding, seasonally adjusted
- $5,196.8B
- Revolving credit outstanding, seasonally adjusted
- $1,352.4B
- Consumer credit flow, annual rate
- $99.4B
Source: Consumer Credit - G.19, August 2026 — Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
all 6 figures found at the source
- found Consumer credit, seasonally adjusted annual rate = 1.9% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Revolving credit, seasonally adjusted annual rate = -4.2% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Nonrevolving credit, seasonally adjusted annual rate = 4.1% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Consumer credit outstanding, seasonally adjusted = $5,196.8B — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Revolving credit outstanding, seasonally adjusted = $1,352.4B — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Consumer credit flow, annual rate = $99.4B — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
2025 Survey of Consumer Finances: 8.6% of families pay over 40% of income on debt, up from 6.5%
The Board released the triennial 2025 Survey of Consumer Finances on October 9. The share of families with debt payments above 40 percent of income rose from 6.5 percent in 2022 to 8.6 percent, a level last seen in the 2013 survey. About 77 percent of families held any debt. Real median family income rose 7 percent to 82,200 dollars, while real mean income fell 6 percent to 145,200 dollars. Real median net worth rose 2 percent to 215,900 dollars. The survey is in inflation-adjusted dollars, so the gains are what was left after three years of prices running above target; the heavier debt-service share is where higher rates meet household budgets.
- Families with debt payment-to-income ratio above 40 percent, 2025 survey
- 8.6%
- Real median family income, 2025 survey
- $82,200
- Real median family income, change from 2022 survey
- 7%
- Real median family net worth, 2025 survey
- $215,900
- Real median family net worth, change from 2022 survey
- 2%
Source: Federal Reserve Board releases results of the 2025 Survey of Consumer Finances — Federal Reserve Board. Also: Changes in U.S. Family Finances from 2022 to 2025: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances.
all 5 figures found at the source
- found Families with debt payment-to-income ratio above 40 percent, 2025 survey = 8.6% — at Federal Reserve Board
- found Real median family income, 2025 survey = $82,200 — at Federal Reserve Board
- found Real median family income, change from 2022 survey = 7% — at Federal Reserve Board
- found Real median family net worth, 2025 survey = $215,900 — at Federal Reserve Board
- found Real median family net worth, change from 2022 survey = 2% — at Federal Reserve Board
Reserve balances averaged $3.030 trillion in the week ended October 7
The Board's weekly balance-sheet release (H.4.1), published October 8, put reserve balances at an average of 3,029,659 million dollars in the week ended October 7, up 81,569 million from the week before, and 3,022,066 million on Wednesday. Total assets were 6,747,560 million dollars on Wednesday, after 6,743,031 million on September 30. Treasury securities held outright were 4,566,384 million, after 4,564,161 million. The Treasury General Account fell to 885,783 million from 984,046 million, and reverse repurchase agreements to 333,739 million from 361,883 million. Most of the rise in reserves was Treasury cash leaving its Fed account, not new asset purchases. Reserves are the base on which bank money is built, so the composition is worth watching.
- Reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks, week average, millions of dollars
- $3,029,659
- Reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks, Wednesday level, millions of dollars
- $3,022,066
- Total assets, Wednesday level, millions of dollars
- $6,747,560
- U.S. Treasury securities held outright, Wednesday level, millions of dollars
- $4,566,384
- Treasury General Account, Wednesday level, millions of dollars
- $885,783
- Reverse repurchase agreements, Wednesday level, millions of dollars
- $333,739
Source: Factors Affecting Reserve Balances - H.4.1, October 8, 2026 — Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
all 6 figures found at the source
- found Reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks, week average, millions of dollars = $3,029,659 — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks, Wednesday level, millions of dollars = $3,022,066 — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Total assets, Wednesday level, millions of dollars = $6,747,560 — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found U.S. Treasury securities held outright, Wednesday level, millions of dollars = $4,566,384 — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Treasury General Account, Wednesday level, millions of dollars = $885,783 — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Reverse repurchase agreements, Wednesday level, millions of dollars = $333,739 — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Bank credit rose to $19,883.2 billion in the week ending September 30
The Board's weekly commercial-bank release (H.8), published October 9, reported seasonally adjusted bank credit of 19,883.2 billion dollars in the week ending September 30, after a revised 19,863.1 billion in the week ending September 23. Loans and leases in bank credit were 14,128.1 billion dollars, after 14,097.3 billion. The September monthly average was 19,876.4 billion, after 19,826.8 billion in August and 18,744.3 billion in September 2025. Bank lending is one of the channels through which money is created; growth of about 6 percent over the year sits alongside inflation still above the 2 percent target. Figures are Table 2 of the release, in billions of dollars.
- Bank credit, seasonally adjusted
- $19,883.2B
- Loans and leases in bank credit, seasonally adjusted
- $14,128.1B
- Bank credit, seasonally adjusted, monthly average
- $19,876.4B
- Bank credit, seasonally adjusted, monthly average, a year earlier
- $18,744.3B
Source: Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the United States - H.8, October 9, 2026 — Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
all 4 figures found at the source
- found Bank credit, seasonally adjusted = $19,883.2B — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Loans and leases in bank credit, seasonally adjusted = $14,128.1B — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Bank credit, seasonally adjusted, monthly average = $19,876.4B — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Bank credit, seasonally adjusted, monthly average, a year earlier = $18,744.3B — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 5.22 percent on October 8 from 5.28 percent on October 2
The Board's selected interest rates release dated October 9 lists the 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield at 5.22 percent on October 8, after 5.28 percent on Friday, October 2. The 2-year fell to 4.75 percent from 4.83 percent and the 30-year to 5.60 percent from 5.63 percent. The 10-year touched 5.31 percent on October 5. The effective federal funds rate held at 3.88 percent all week, bank prime at 7.00 percent and discount-window primary credit at 4.00 percent. October 9 yields are not yet on the release. Long yields above 5 percent are what lenders charge for holding dollars a decade out after inflation has run above target for years.
- 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield
- 5.22%
- 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield
- 4.75%
- 30-year Treasury constant maturity yield
- 5.6%
- 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield, week high
- 5.31%
- Federal funds effective rate
- 3.88%
- Bank prime loan rate
- 7%
- Discount window primary credit rate
- 4%
Source: Selected Interest Rates (Daily) — October 9, 2026 — Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
all 7 figures found at the source
- found 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield = 5.22% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield = 4.75% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found 30-year Treasury constant maturity yield = 5.6% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield, week high = 5.31% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Federal funds effective rate = 3.88% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Bank prime loan rate = 7% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Discount window primary credit rate = 4% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Treasury sold $22 billion of 30-year bonds at 5.618 percent, the highest 30-year stop since 2000
TreasuryDirect results for October 8 show a 22 billion dollar reopening of the 5-1/8 percent bonds of August 2056 stopped at a 5.618 percent high yield, up from 5.308 percent at the September 10 reopening; TreasuryDirect's auction history puts the last higher 30-year stop at 5.697 percent on August 10, 2000. The bid-to-cover ratio was 2.54, after 2.61, and the price per 100 was 92.889131. Only 26.77 percent was allotted at the high yield, after 64.29 percent. The week's 3-year and 9-year 10-month auctions have their own release pages. Taxpayers carry the higher stop for three decades; it is what lenders now demand to hold dollars that far out.
- High yield, 30-year bond reopening
- 5.62%
- Offering amount
- $22,000,000,000
- Bid-to-cover ratio
- 2.54
- Coupon rate
- 5.13%
- Price per 100
- 92.889
- Share allotted at the high yield
- 26.77%
Source: Treasury auction results, October 8, 2026 — U.S. Department of the Treasury, TreasuryDirect. Also: Treasury auction results, September 10, 2026, Treasury auction results, August 10, 2000, Treasury Auction Results press release, 30-Year Bond, October 8, 2026.
all 6 figures found at the source
- found High yield, 30-year bond reopening = 5.62% — at U.S. Department of the Treasury, TreasuryDirect
- found Offering amount = $22,000,000,000 — at U.S. Department of the Treasury, TreasuryDirect
- found Bid-to-cover ratio = 2.54 — at U.S. Department of the Treasury, TreasuryDirect
- found Coupon rate = 5.13% — at U.S. Department of the Treasury, TreasuryDirect
- found Price per 100 = 92.889 — at U.S. Department of the Treasury, TreasuryDirect
- found Share allotted at the high yield = 26.77% — at U.S. Department of the Treasury, TreasuryDirect
Total public debt outstanding rose to $40.305 trillion on October 8 from $40.261 trillion on October 1
Treasury Fiscal Data's Debt to the Penny listed total public debt outstanding at 40,305,316,210,829.72 dollars on October 8, after 40,260,641,972,390.03 dollars on October 1, the first business day of fiscal 2027, a rise of about 44.7 billion dollars in five business days. Debt held by the public was 32,454,086,117,711.32 dollars, after 32,433,790,394,253.86 dollars. Intragovernmental holdings were 7,851,230,093,118.40 dollars, after 7,826,851,578,136.17 dollars. The debt is the stock of past deficits; when it grows faster than the economy, the pressure on the central bank to keep its financing cheap grows with it.
- Total public debt outstanding
- $40,305,316,210,829.72
- Debt held by the public
- $32,454,086,117,711.32
- Intragovernmental holdings
- $7,851,230,093,118.4
Source: Debt to the Penny API, October 1–9, 2026 — U.S. Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service. Also: Debt to the Penny.
all 3 figures found at the source
- found Total public debt outstanding = $40,305,316,210,829.72 — at U.S. Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service
- found Debt held by the public = $32,454,086,117,711.32 — at U.S. Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service
- found Intragovernmental holdings = $7,851,230,093,118.4 — at U.S. Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service
Items report what the named sources published in the window; they are not this site's own findings, and a source's framing is not a verdict on who owns the money supply. Figures are as those sources printed them. The methodology says how this page is made and what is checked.