New York Fed survey: inflation expectations held at 3.9% as unemployment worries hit a five-year high
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Center for Microeconomic Data released the October 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations on November 9. Median inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.9% one year ahead, 3.3% three years ahead and 3.0% five years ahead. The mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher a year from now rose 1.4 percentage points to 45.3%, the highest reading since April 2020, driven by respondents without a college degree. The mean probability of finding a job if one's current job were lost rose 0.4 percentage point to 46.5%, the highest since November 2025. The mean probability of missing a minimum debt payment in the next three months rose 1.6 percentage points to 13.8%, the highest since December 2025. Expected rent growth rose 0.9 percentage point to 7.7%. The survey was fielded October 1 through October 31, 2026.
- Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations
- 3.9%
- Median three-year-ahead inflation expectations
- 3.3%
- Median five-year-ahead inflation expectations
- 3%
- Mean unemployment expectations (probability unemployment is higher in 12 months)
- 45.3%
- Mean probability of finding a job if current job is lost
- 46.5%
- Mean probability of missing a minimum debt payment in the next three months
- 13.8%
Source: Inflation Expectations Stable; Labor Market Expectations Mixed (October 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations) — Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Also: Short- and Medium-Term Inflation Expectations Increase; Labor Market Expectations Improve (September 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations).
all 6 figures found at the source
- found Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations = 3.9% — at Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- found Median three-year-ahead inflation expectations = 3.3% — at Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- found Median five-year-ahead inflation expectations = 3% — at Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- found Mean unemployment expectations (probability unemployment is higher in 12 months) = 45.3% — at Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- found Mean probability of finding a job if current job is lost = 46.5% — at Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- found Mean probability of missing a minimum debt payment in the next three months = 13.8% — at Federal Reserve Bank of New York
This page is one print. The daily brief for November 9, 2026 is the editor's cut of what mattered that day. Figures are as the named sources printed them. The methodology says how this page is made and what is checked.