Daily brief: September 16, 2026

On their own pages

• SEP median 2026 federal funds rate is 4.1 percent, from 3.8 percent

  The Summary of Economic Projections released with the September 15-16, 2026 FOMC meeting shows a median federal funds rate of 4.1 percent in 2026, compared with 3.8 percent in the June projections. The 2026 median for PCE inflation is 3.7 percent (3.6 percent in June) and for core PCE inflation 3.4 percent (3.3 percent in June). The 2026 unemployment median is 4.1 percent, from 4.3 percent in June. Real GDP growth medians are 2.3 percent in 2026 and 2.4 percent in 2027. The longer-run federal funds rate median is 3.2 percent, from 3.1 percent in June.

• August retail and food services sales were $773.9 billion, up 1.2 percent

  The Census Bureau's Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, release CB26-153 posted today, said seasonally adjusted August 2026 sales were $773.9 billion, up 1.2 percent from the previous month and up 6.0 percent from August 2025. Sales for June through August 2026 were up 6.0 percent from the same period a year earlier. The June-to-July percent change was revised from down 0.6 percent to down 0.5 percent. Figures are adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes.

• July business inventories were $2,764.7 billion, up 0.8 percent

  The Census Bureau's Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales release CB26-154, posted today, said seasonally adjusted manufacturers' and trade inventories were $2,764.7 billion at the end of July, up 0.8 percent from June 2026 and up 3.8 percent from July 2025. Combined distributive trade sales and manufacturers' shipments were $2,120.7 billion, up 0.3 percent from June and up 8.9 percent from July 2025. The total business inventories-to-sales ratio was 1.30 at the end of July, compared with 1.37 in July 2025. Figures are adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes.

• Net TIC inflows were $83.7 billion in July

  The Treasury Department released Treasury International Capital data for July 2026. Monthly net dollar-denominated portfolio inflows were $83.7 billion, after $135.5 billion in June. Private inflows were $73.5 billion and official inflows were $10.2 billion. Foreign residents' net purchases of long-term U.S. securities were $40.6 billion, of which official institutions bought $44.4 billion and private foreign investors sold $3.7 billion. U.S. residents' net purchases of long-term foreign securities were $68.5 billion. After adjustments, overall net foreign sales of long-term securities were $27.9 billion. Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury bills rose $38.8 billion, and holdings of all dollar-denominated short-term U.S. securities and other custody liabilities rose $65.0 billion. Banks' own net dollar-denominated liabilities to foreign residents rose $46.6 billion.

• Treasury par curve: 10-year at 5.01 percent, 2-year at 4.74 percent

  The Treasury Department's daily par yield curve for September 16 listed the 2-year note at 4.74 percent, the 5-year at 4.86 percent, the 10-year at 5.01 percent, and the 30-year at 5.35 percent. Those compare with September 15 prints of 4.67 percent, 4.83 percent, 5.00 percent, and 5.36 percent. The 2-year rose 7 basis points on the FOMC day; the 10-year rose 1 basis point, below the site's 10-basis-point must-file bar on that series alone. The 2s10s spread narrowed to 27 basis points from 33.