SEP median 2026 federal funds rate is 4.1 percent, from 3.8 percent
The Summary of Economic Projections released with the September 15-16, 2026 FOMC meeting shows a median federal funds rate of 4.1 percent in 2026, compared with 3.8 percent in the June projections. The 2026 median for PCE inflation is 3.7 percent (3.6 percent in June) and for core PCE inflation 3.4 percent (3.3 percent in June). The 2026 unemployment median is 4.1 percent, from 4.3 percent in June. Real GDP growth medians are 2.3 percent in 2026 and 2.4 percent in 2027. The longer-run federal funds rate median is 3.2 percent, from 3.1 percent in June.
- Median federal funds rate projection, 2026
- 4.1%
- Median federal funds rate projection, 2027
- 4.1%
- Median federal funds rate projection, longer run
- 3.2%
- Median PCE inflation projection, 2026
- 3.7%
- Median core PCE inflation projection, 2026
- 3.4%
- Median unemployment rate projection, 2026
- 4.1%
- Median real GDP growth projection, 2026
- 2.3%
Source: September 16, 2026: FOMC Projections materials, accessible version — Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Also: Federal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee release economic projections from the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, June 17, 2026: FOMC Projections materials, accessible version.
all 7 figures found at the source
- found Median federal funds rate projection, 2026 = 4.1% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Median federal funds rate projection, 2027 = 4.1% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Median federal funds rate projection, longer run = 3.2% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Median PCE inflation projection, 2026 = 3.7% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Median core PCE inflation projection, 2026 = 3.4% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Median unemployment rate projection, 2026 = 4.1% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- found Median real GDP growth projection, 2026 = 2.3% — at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
This page is one print. The daily brief for September 16, 2026 is the editor's cut of what mattered that day. Figures are as the named sources printed them. The methodology says how this page is made and what is checked.