Daily brief: September 25, 2026

On their own pages

• Durable goods orders were virtually unchanged at $338.6 billion

  The Census Bureau said new orders for manufactured durable goods in August decreased $0.1 billion, or were virtually unchanged, to $338.6 billion. That followed a 0.9 percent July increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.3 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.1 percent. Transportation equipment drove the decrease, falling $0.7 billion or 0.6 percent to $114.1 billion.

• Board selected interest rates list the 10-year at 5.18 percent for September 24

  The Board posted the September 25 selected interest rates release at the usual 4:15 p.m. ET window. The latest column is September 24. Effective federal funds were 3.88 percent, unchanged from September 23. The 2-year Treasury constant maturity was 4.87 percent after 4.85 percent, the 10-year was 5.18 percent after 5.11 percent, and the 30-year was 5.47 percent after 5.40 percent. Bank prime stayed at 7.00 percent and discount-window primary credit at 4.00 percent. The 10-year move is 7 basis points. Treasury's earlier par-curve print for September 24 already listed the same 10-year at 5.18 percent.

• Commercial-bank credit was $19,876.3 billion in the week ended September 16

  The Board posted the September 25 commercial-bank assets and liabilities release at the usual 4:15 p.m. ET window. Table 2, seasonally adjusted, lists bank credit at $19,876.3 billion in the week ended September 16, after $19,866.8 billion in the week ended September 9. Loans and leases in bank credit were $14,079.0 billion after $14,062.4 billion. Commercial and industrial loans were $2,965.3 billion after $2,967.7 billion. Deposits were $19,568.4 billion after $19,657.5 billion. Table 1 break-adjusted seasonally adjusted annual rates for August show bank credit up 4.9 percent after 5.5 percent in July, loans and leases up 8.8 percent after 3.7 percent, and commercial and industrial loans up 18.9 percent after falling 2.4 percent.

• Total public debt outstanding was $40.074 trillion on September 23

  Treasury Fiscal Data's Debt to the Penny listed total public debt outstanding at 40073558531201.68 dollars as of September 23, compared with 40097834028442.07 dollars on September 22. Debt held by the public was 32376938482751.49 dollars, compared with 32375685818022.20 dollars on September 22. Intragovernmental holdings were 7696620048450.19 dollars, compared with 7722148210419.87 dollars on September 22. The one-business-day change of -24275497240.39 dollars mixed a 1.25 billion dollar rise in debt held by the public with a 25.53 billion dollar decline in intragovernmental holdings.

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 nowcast is 5.0 percent, down from 5.1 percent

  The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2026 is 5.0 percent on September 25, down from 5.1 percent on September 17. After releases from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, an increase in the nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 4.1 percent to 4.2 percent was more than offset by a decrease in the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 19.2 percent to 18.7 percent. GDPNow is a model nowcast, not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed or the FOMC.