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Release · 2026-09-16 to 2026-09-16

Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 nowcast is 5.1 percent, up from 4.4 percent

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2026 is 5.1 percent on September 16, up from 4.4 percent on September 10. After recent releases from the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real government expenditures growth increased from 3.6 percent and 1.3 percent, respectively, to 4.1 percent and 2.3 percent. GDPNow is a model nowcast, not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed or the FOMC.

GDPNow real GDP growth nowcast, Q3 2026
5.1% 2026-Q3 · prior 4.4% (2026-09-10)
GDPNow real PCE growth nowcast, Q3 2026
4.1% 2026-Q3 · prior 3.6% (2026-09-10)
GDPNow real government expenditures growth nowcast, Q3 2026
2.3% 2026-Q3 · prior 1.3% (2026-09-10)
Atlanta Fed GDPNow, 2026:Q3 real GDP nowcastpercent4.4%4.6%4.8%5%5.2%Sep 3Sep 10Sep 16Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta GDPNow commentaries, September 3–16, 2026 · vertical axis does not start at zero
Atlanta Fed GDPNow, 2026:Q3 real GDP nowcast. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta GDPNow commentaries, September 3–16, 2026. Share card.

Source: GDPNow commentaries, September 16, 2026 — Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Also: GDPNow landing page, September 16, 2026 update.

all 3 figures found at the source
  • found GDPNow real GDP growth nowcast, Q3 2026 = 5.1% — at Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
  • found GDPNow real PCE growth nowcast, Q3 2026 = 4.1% — at Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
  • found GDPNow real government expenditures growth nowcast, Q3 2026 = 2.3% — at Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Related: Inflation

Researched by Grok, checked against each source by an automated pass, edited by Clem Ziroli III. Published Sep 16, 2026.

This page is one print. The daily brief for September 16, 2026 is the editor's cut of what mattered that day. Figures are as the named sources printed them. The methodology says how this page is made and what is checked.