Daily brief: September 30, 2026

On their own pages

• PCE prices rose 0.3 percent in August, 3.4 percent yearly

  The Bureau of Economic Analysis said the PCE price index increased 0.3 percent in August after 0.1 percent in July, and 3.4 percent from a year earlier. Excluding food and energy, the index increased 0.2 percent on the month and 3.0 percent on the year. Personal income increased $66.6 billion, or 0.2 percent. Disposable personal income increased $68.6 billion, or 0.3 percent. Personal consumption expenditures increased $190.8 billion, or 0.9 percent. The personal saving rate was 4.1 percent.

• Real GDP revised up to 2.2 percent in the second quarter

  The Bureau of Economic Analysis third estimate put second-quarter 2026 real GDP at a 2.2 percent annual rate, revised up 0.7 percentage point from the 1.5 percent second estimate. First-quarter real GDP was revised to 2.5 percent. Real GDI rose 2.6 percent. The quarterly PCE price index increased 5.0 percent, and the index excluding food and energy increased 3.3 percent. Current-dollar GDP increased 8.5 percent. Corporate profits from current production increased $384.0 billion.

• Goods trade deficit was $132.6 billion in August

  The Census Bureau's Advance Economic Indicators Report for August, released today, said the international trade deficit in goods was $132.6 billion, up $13.7 billion from $118.9 billion in July. Exports of goods were $203.4 billion, $3.7 billion more than July. Imports of goods were $336.1 billion, $17.4 billion more than July. Wholesale inventories were $965.7 billion at month-end, up 0.7 percent from July and up 6.6 percent from August 2025. Retail inventories were $881.6 billion, up 0.3 percent from July and up 4.8 percent from August 2025. The June-to-July wholesale change was unrevised at up 1.3 percent; the June-to-July retail change was unrevised at up 0.8 percent.

• The 10-year Treasury yield was 5.26 percent on September 29

  The Federal Reserve Board's H.15 Selected Interest Rates dated September 30 lists figures through September 29. The 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield was 5.26 percent, after 5.24 percent on September 28. The 2-year was 4.89 percent, after 4.92 percent. The 30-year was 5.59 percent, after 5.56 percent. The effective federal funds rate was 3.88 percent, unchanged. Bank prime remained 7.00 percent and discount-window primary credit remained 4.00 percent. The September 30 column is not on the table.

• Treasury sold $75 billion of 17-week bills at a 4.115 percent high rate

  The Treasury Department's 17-week bill auction on September 30 sold $75 billion of 119-day bills (CUSIP 912797WS2) at a high discount rate of 4.115 percent and an investment rate of 4.230 percent. Bid-to-cover was 2.89. Price was 98.639764. Total tenders were $220,889,238,800 and total accepted $78,818,888,800, including $3,818,883,200 accepted by SOMA outside the offering. Last Wednesday's 17-week bill (CUSIP 912797WR4) stopped at a 4.135 percent high discount rate and a 4.251 percent investment rate, with bid-to-cover 2.81. The new bills issue October 6 and mature February 2, 2027.

• Total public debt outstanding was $40.097 trillion on September 29

  Treasury Fiscal Data's Debt to the Penny listed total public debt outstanding at 40096954633566.68 dollars as of September 29, compared with 40102185696865.37 dollars on September 28. Debt held by the public was 32367872193303.63 dollars, compared with 32386263609755.87 dollars on September 28. Intragovernmental holdings were 7729082440263.05 dollars, compared with 7715922087109.50 dollars on September 28. The one-business-day change of -5231063298.69 dollars mixed an 18.39 billion dollar fall in debt held by the public with a 13.16 billion dollar rise in intragovernmental holdings.

• Cook: inflation has exceeded 2 percent for more than five years

  Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, in prepared remarks at the Richmond Fed's Investing in Rural America conference in Asheville on September 30, said inflation has been too high for too long and has exceeded the Fed's 2 percent target for more than five years. She voted with the rest of the FOMC for a 25 basis-point increase at the September meeting and said she is committed to returning inflation to the objective while preserving strength in the labor market. A speech is not a statistical print; the release page holds the speech figures.